Morning Report: 08.45 London

• This morning the Euro is trading lower following the Finnish parliamentary election results which indicate that the Europsceptic True Finn party could take a role in a coalition government. The True Finn party has the potential to scupper any Portugal bailout by causing the government to vote against such a deal. Expect lots of horse trading in Finnish politics with the European powers pressing for an outcome that will not upset the apple cart.
• In addition this morning, Moody’s has downgraded the ratings for a number of Irish banks.
• Just hitting the newswires are reports that according to a senior IMF source, Greece asked the EU/ IMF to restructure its debt at the EcoFin conference. This has caused a knee jerk reaction in the EUR/ USD. Reuters have also reported Greek newspaper headlines which state that US treasury secretary Geithner is also in favour of a Greek debt restructuring. [Update - Greece has denied that it sought to restructure its debt and the euro is lifting off the lows accordingly].
• The EUR/ USD is down around 0.65% with the EUR/ JPY one of the day’s biggest fallers, down 0.93%.

• The Swiss franc is unwinding after hitting fresh new highs last week. The USD/ CHF is up 0.50%.

• The AUD/ USD‘s trading ranges have been dropping steadily for the last few days, something that can often precede a big volatility move.

• A good way to play this might be an IN/ OUT trade predicting that the AUD/ USD will close outside of either 1.0450 or 1.0675 in 3 days on March 21st for a potential return of 142%.
• You can find direct links to this trade idea here.

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Morning Report: 08.30 London

• This morning, the US dollar index continues to weaken further, hitting its lowest level since December 2009. The morning’s dollar losses aren’t huge, but they are well dispersed.
• The biggest gainer is the NZD/ USD which is up 0.71%, with the AUD/ USD up by 0.30%.
• The EUR/ USD is pushing higher towards the November high of 1.4282, trading roughly 40 pips below this at 4.4242.
• The British pound is strong this morning ahead of the morning’s inflation data due at 09.30. Analysts are speculating that UK CPI will have risen to 4.2%, its highest level since November 2008. This could be offset by an increase in public sector net borrowing which is expected to come in higher than the previous month.
• The GBP/ USD is pushing to session highs, up 0.3% with the GBP/ JPY up 0.15%.

Coming up today:

• Aside from the aforementioned UK inflation data, today we have Canadian core retail sales due at 12.30, expected to rise on last month.
• We also have a number central bankers/ treasury officials speaking with the FOMC’s Fisher speaking at 11.35, Treasury secretary Geithner speaking at 12.30 and MPC member Sentance speaking at 18.00 London.

Bet Idea:

• The Australian dollar is lagging behind its New Zealand counterpart this morning with the AUD/ USD higher by just 0.3%.

• The Aussie has rallied strongly off the lows just a few trading sessions ago and is now above the 1.0000 level once again. Today’s trading range is so far below average which hints that there is room for further upside today.
• A good way to play this might be a HIGHER trade predicting that the AUD/ USD will close above 1.0115 today could return 135% if successful.
• You can find direct links to this trading idea here.

Summary:

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Morning Report: 07.30

• This morning, further explosions at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant and fears over a full blown nuclear crisis sent the Japanese Nikkei tumbling by 10% this morning. US stock market futures are also pointing to significant drops on stock markets across the world with the S&P 500 futures down 2%.
• On currency markets, the biggest fallers are the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar. The AUD/ USD is down 1.2% with the AUD/ JPY down 1.35%. The USD/ CAD is up 0.78%. Both of these counties are big uranium exporters, but with nuclear energy now a dirty word, this vital export is looking fragile.

• The yen is holding firm despite the disaster with the USD/ JPY down slightly and big gains against other currencies.
• The dollar is strong across the board as falling commodities push money back to the perceived safety of the greenback.

Coming up today:

• The trading outlook is changing by the minute so planned economic news items will be secondary to developments in Japan.
• Today we have the all day meeting of the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council as leaders thrash out the final details of the weekend’s broad agreements on peripheral debt.
• At 10.00 we have German ZEW economic sentiment.
• US TIC long term purchases follow at 13.00, then we have the latest rate statement from the US Federal reserve.

Bet Idea: Canadian dollar

• A flight to quality is setting in today with the US dollar, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in demand.
• There is little to choose between the British pound and euro today as traders view them as equally risky to hold. The EUR/ GBP is unchanged so far today, but its unlikely to stay this way for long, especially with German ZEW sentiment due later.
• Between the GBP and EUR, it’s the ECB that has been emitting the more hawkish noises about strong vigilance with regards to inflation. Traders have been speculating that a rate hike for the eurozone could come as early as the April 7th meeting. However the Japanese earthquake could be a game changer in many ways and already WTI crude prices have dropped below $100 a barrel. This may in turn ease inflation pressures, which could lessen the probability of sustained interest rate hikes from the ECB.

• One way to play this on the EUR/ GBP might be a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/ GBP will close below 0.8600 in 30 days time for a potential return of 116%.
• You can find direct links to this trade idea here.

Summary:

*Note – There will be no afternoon report today.

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Morning Report: 08.30 London

• Markets were dealing with the aftermath of yesterday’s sell off overnight when an earthquake measuring 8.9 on the richter scale hit northern Japan. The situation is still developing with a Tsunami causing havoc across more rural regions and aftershocks still being felt.
• The yen has been volatile as you might expect.

• Right now (08.15) financial markets appear to be easing off the selling pressure with stock market futures coming off the lows of the day. The chart below shows the S&P 500 futures and the reaction to the quake hitting.

• Last night saw big trading volumes with the Dow Jones closing down 1.87%, the S&P 500 closing down 1.89% and the Nasdaq 100 down 1.65%.

• Last night most currencies sold off heavily against the US dollar with the pound, euro and Australian dollar suffering heavy losses.
• The EUR/ USD closed below 1.3800 as concerns over the Eurozone periphery dampened interest rate speculation. The euro is recovering this morning though with the EUR/ USD up 0.31%, the EUR/ GBP up 0.39% and the EUR/ CHF up 0.50%. The EUR/ JPY 0.25% lower though as the yen is in demand.

• The GBP/ USD also sold off heavily and is indifferent this morning as traders priced in Bank of England rate hike as being further away than previously speculated. The GBP/ JPY is down by 0.27%.

Coming up today:

• Coming up today we have UK PPI input at 09.30 with a drop to 1.4% expected.
• At 12.00 Canadian employment change & unemployment rates are released with a mixed picture expected to emerge.
• At 13.30 we have US retail sales followed by preliminary UoM consumer sentiment at 14.55.
• UK Bank of England Governor King could cause some lake activity in the pound with his speech at 20.45.

Bet Idea: Gold

• European leaders are meeting this weekend to discuss the collective response to the Libya crisis and the stressed peripheral European nations. With the situation in Japan developing, Gold is rallying as traders seek the perceived security of the precious metal.
• With the ongoing tensions in the middle east, it may be of little surprise that gold has rallied strongly for the last two Fridays as traders hedge against weekend unrest. Today appears to be following a similar pattern with gold finding support around $1410.

• The situation in Libya and other MENA regions appears to have reached a impasse and the most probable outcome from the meeting of leaders in Europe is strong words rather than strong action, so Gold may not rally too far today.
• A good way to play this might be an IN/ OUT trade predicting that gold will remain rangebound for the next few days, with an upside bias. One set up would be to predict that gold/ USD ends the day between 1410 and 1435 on the 16th of March (5 days).
• If successful, this trade could return 130%. You can find direct links to this trade idea here.
• Gold is found under the commodities menu.

Summary March 11th:

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Morning Report: 08.15 London

• This morning stock market futures are rebounding after selling off throughout the European session yesterday. The Dow Jones close down 0.66% and the Nasdaq 100 a hefty 1.35%, but futures activity indicates that those deficits could be overhauled today.

• Forex markets show the US dollar generally dominating, especially against the ‘safe harbour’ currencies of the yen and Swiss franc. The USD/ JPY is up 0.27% while the USD/ CHF is higher by 0.75%.

• The New Zealand dollar is bucking the trend though with the NZD/ USD up 0.42%.

• The GBP/ USD & EUR/ USD are down by by just 0.15%. In Europe, interest rate speculation still seems to be trumping concerns over stress in Ireland and Greece for the moment, as witnesses by the EUR/ CHF rallying by 0.61% this morning.

Coming up today:

• In short, there isn’t much to get excited about from the economic calendar today.
• Of the middle tier economic announcements, we have German factory orders due at 11.00.
• There are a number of central bankers talking which could get markets moving. This starts with Bundesbank President Weber speaking at 10.00. Bank of England Governor King is also expected to speak at some point today, while the Bank of Japan governor Shirakawa is due to speak at 16.00.

Bet Idea:

• The EUR/ JPY shot higher on the 3rd after ECB president Trichet gave strong hints of a rate hike at the next meeting. Since then the euro has been range bound as rate speculation is cancelled out by wider geopolitical tensions and stress in the eurozone periphery.

• If either of these forces gains momentum in the next few days, the EUR/ JPY could break out well above support 116.00 or sink below the mid levels from the 3rd around 114.00.

• One way to play this might be an IN/ OUT trade predicting that the EUR/ JPY will close above 116.50 or below 114.00 in the next 6 days. If successful, this could return 121%.
• You can find direct links to this trade idea here.

Summary:

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Morning Report: 08.15 London

• This morning, traders are shunning the safe haven yen as market confidence starts to return. The USD/ JPY is up 0.54% to 82.20, while the GBP/ JPY is strong, up 0.95%. The EUR/ JPY is not far behind at +0.5% with the AUD/ JPY up 0.3%.

• Aside from the yen, the US dollar is stronger against other currencies with gains of 0.2% against the Aussie dollar, New Zealand dollar and Swiss franc. The two currencies holding firm are the British pound and Canadian dollar.
• This morning, UK house prices showed an unexpected gain of 0.3% month on month, increasing speculation that the UK’s Bank of England has room to hike interest rates. The GBP/ USD is up 0.36%, hitting a 13 month high above recent support.

• Interest rate speculation is also behind some of the recent strength in the USD/ CAD with traders looking for a hawkish message from the Bank if Canada this afternoon.

Coming up today

• Coming up today we have UK manufacturing PMI at 09.30 with a drop to 61.50 expected. UK net lending to individuals is expected to rise to 0.3bn.
• At 10.00 we have the UK inflation report hearings.
• The Bank of Canada interest rate statement follows at 14.00 with no change to the 1% benchmark rate expected.
• US ISM manufacturing PMI follows at 15.00 with Fed chairman Bernanke’s testimony before congress starting at the same time

Bet Idea:

• Rate hike speculation is pushing the British pound to a 13 month high against the US dollar along with two days of big gains against the yen. While today’s inflation report is likely to show inflationary pressures, a rate hike is by no means a full gone conclusion.
• The GBP/ USD’s recent push may have over extended which could set up a reversal trade.
• One way to play this now would be to predict that the GBP/ USD will close today below 1.6300 (or 20 pips below current levels). If successful, this could return 126%.
• There looks like there could be a little more upside today before a pull back comes so this trade is ideally best left until the GBP/ USD is above 1.6500.
• You can find direct links to this trade idea here.

Summary:

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Morning Report: 08.15 London

• It’s been a fairly steady, unspectacular start to the trading week with no major movement throughout the Monday Asian session. In Libya, the rebellion appears to be getting closer to deposing Gaddafi, though the leader still shows no signs of stepping down gracefully.
• The US dollar is slightly weaker in early trading with commodity heavy USD/ CAD pushing to its lowest level since Feb 28th 2008.

• The yen is also showing signs of slight weakness as investors ease their demand for safe havens. The EUR/ JPY appears to be holding above support at 112.00

• Gold is higher this morning but has retreated from its morning peak of $1416.40.

Bet Idea

• It’s been a quiet start to the trading week for the Japanese yen with the USD/ JPY unchanged through the Asian session. The trading calendar offers few highlights, but the geopolitical situation is still fluid so there may still be some significant activity to come today.
• A good way to play this might be an IN/ OUT trade predicting that the USD/ JPY will close outside of 81.25 or 82.00 in 1 days time (March 1st). If successful, this could return 103%.
• You can find direct links to this trading idea here.

Summary:

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Morning Report: 08.15 London

• This morning Middle East & North Africa tensions are escalating with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia attempting to head off a popular unrest with a financial package for workers. With Brent crude oil prices rocketing to $117 and WTI crude hitting $100, traders are clearly spooked and betting on things getting worse before they get better.
• Traders are putting their money into the safe haven currencies of the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold.
• The USD/ CHF has made record new lows and is currently trading at 0.9270, down 0.60%. The EUR/ CHF has smashed through support to trade down 0.82%.

• The yen is the currency in demand this morning though with the USD/ JPY down 0.75% and other pairs such as the GBP/ JPY down 1.10%.

• Stock market futures have rolled over. They were pointing to a flat open, but we’re looking at another significant sell off again this morning now on the FTSE 100 and other European markets.

Coming up today:

• With geopolitical events unpredictable right now, planned economic announcement could take a back seat to breaking news throughout the day.
• Today’s top planned economic news items include USD core durable goods orders at 13.30 with unemployment claims released at the same time.
• US new home sales follow at 15.00 with a slight increase expected.

Bet Idea: Swiss franc

• The USD/ CHF is hitting record low levels as tensions rise, but with today’s trading range still lower than yesterday’s there are hints of more downside to come. On the other hand, any rebound could be aggressive so an IN/ OUT trade could be the best way to play this situation today.
• An IN/ OUT trade predicting that the USD/ CHF will close outside of 0.9175 or 0.9350 in 4 days time (Feb 28th) could return 128% if successful.
• You can find direct links to this trade idea here:

Summary:

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Morning Report: 08.00 London

• Last night US dollar staged a late session slump following the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Even the weak GBP/ USD managed to close well above the day’s lows.

• The weakness has generally continued through this morning, especially against the yen and CHF with the USD/ JPY and USD/ CHF down 0.2% respectively. The antipodean currencies of the AUD/ USD and are travelling well, up 0.15%.

• World stock markets continued their fine run of form with the Dow Jones closing at fresh highs for the year. The FTSE 100′s trend has not been as clear cut though with resistance overhead at 6100.

Coming up today:

• There should be more UK inflation/ rate hike speculation today as MPC member Danny Sentance speaks at 09.35. CBI Industrial Order Expectations follows at 11.00.
• The day’s main announcements come at 13.30 with core CPI expected to stay at 0.1% and unemployment claims expected to rise at 401K.
• Fed chairman Bernanke speaks at 15.00, with the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index due at the same time.

Bet Idea:

• The NZD/ USD rallied for the first time in 5 sessions yesterday and the Kiwi is pushing higher again this morning.

• The trading range so far this morning is below average at just 25 pips which hints there there is room for a bigger move (assuming it comes in the direction set by the last 24 hours).
• A good way to play this might be to bet that the NZD/ USD will close the day higher than 0.7570 by the close of trading today. If successful, this could return 144%.
• You can find direct links to this trading idea here.

Summary:

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Morning Report: 08.15 London

• Last night US stock markets including the Dow Jones (Wall Street) once again managed to push off the lows of the day, but the buying force wasn’t strong enough for a positive finish.
• This morning the US dollar is weak ahead of a very busy economic calendar. The EUR/ USD is the stand out mover, up 0.42%. The pound is making further gains with the GBP/ USD up 0.25%.

• Gold is continuing to capitalise on the weakness in the dollar, holding above $1375.

Coming up today:

• The economic calendar is packed today with a number of UK and US announcements of note.
• UK claimant count change is first up, due at 09.30 along with the latest average earnings index. Jobless claims are expected to drop by -3.2k.
• After yesterday’s CPI & RPI data, at 10.30 today we have the Bank of England inflation report with an accompanying speech from governor King. King is under considerable pressure with inflation persisting above targets levels.
• From 13.30 the economic calendar gets even busier with a number of releases from the US and Canada. Highlights include building permits and PPI followed by the release of the last FOMC minutes at 19.00.

Bet Idea: AUD/ JPY

• In the last week, the Australian dollar and Japanese yen (AUD/ JPY) have become closely aligned. There are some economic reasons for this, primarily the export of commodities and high tech goods to China. However, given that the current trading ranges are approaching levels not seen since Christmas, the current stalemate is unlikely to be sustainable.

• A good way to play this might be an In/ Out trade predicting that AUD/ JPY will close outside of 84.25 or 82.75 in 2 days time (Friday 18th). If successful, this could return 176%.
• You can find direct links to this trading idea here.

Summary:

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