Morning Report: 08.45 London

• This morning the Euro is trading lower following the Finnish parliamentary election results which indicate that the Europsceptic True Finn party could take a role in a coalition government. The True Finn party has the potential to scupper any Portugal bailout by causing the government to vote against such a deal. Expect lots of horse trading in Finnish politics with the European powers pressing for an outcome that will not upset the apple cart.
• In addition this morning, Moody’s has downgraded the ratings for a number of Irish banks.
• Just hitting the newswires are reports that according to a senior IMF source, Greece asked the EU/ IMF to restructure its debt at the EcoFin conference. This has caused a knee jerk reaction in the EUR/ USD. Reuters have also reported Greek newspaper headlines which state that US treasury secretary Geithner is also in favour of a Greek debt restructuring. [Update - Greece has denied that it sought to restructure its debt and the euro is lifting off the lows accordingly].
• The EUR/ USD is down around 0.65% with the EUR/ JPY one of the day’s biggest fallers, down 0.93%.

• The Swiss franc is unwinding after hitting fresh new highs last week. The USD/ CHF is up 0.50%.

• The AUD/ USD‘s trading ranges have been dropping steadily for the last few days, something that can often precede a big volatility move.

• A good way to play this might be an IN/ OUT trade predicting that the AUD/ USD will close outside of either 1.0450 or 1.0675 in 3 days on March 21st for a potential return of 142%.
• You can find direct links to this trade idea here.

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